Revisiting the Impact of Refugees on Civil Wars: A Global Local Analysis

ZHOU, Y., & SHAVER, A. (2021) Revisiting the impact of refugees on civil wars: a global regional analysis. American Political Science Review, 1-22. doi: 10.1017/S0003055421000502

Commentary

According to a large literature, accepting refugees is considered to be a trigger for conflict. However, the hypothesis that these claims have not seen any positive impact of accepting them, this study investigates them.

Using and analyzing global data on the location of refugee communities and civil wars at the local level from 1990-2018, the study found no association between accepting refugees and a higher likelihood of new conflicts, prolonged conflict, or increased violent incidents and casualties.

In addition, we investigated the circumstances under which states are more likely to experience a significant reduction in conflict risk. An analysis examining nighttime lighting as a measure of development, coupled with interviews with experts, supported the researchers' claims.

Using placebo testing and matching to address possible selection bias, the study challenges the claim that refugees are a security risk. Instead, they showed that in many cases, accepting refugees could promote regional development and even reduce conflict.