Projected global, regional, and country-level sexual imbalances at birth from 2021 to 2100: Scenario-based Bayesian probabilistic projections of sex ratio at birth and missing female births based on 3.26 billion birth records. 

Chao F, Gerland P, Cook AR, et al. Projections of sexual imbalance at birth at the global, regional, and country levels from 2021 to 2100: scenario-based Bayesian probabilistic projections of sex ratio at birth and missing female births based on 3.26 billion birth records BMJ Global Health 2021; 6 : e005516.

Commentary

This study appears to have been prompted by the observation of skewed levels of sex ratio at birth (SRB) in some countries due to "sex-selective abortion" since the 1970s. This trend has caused a long-term gender imbalance in more than a third of the world's population, and the social and economic consequences are still unknown.

The study produced probabilistic SRB projections for the years 2021-2100 and assessed their impact in terms of missing female births at the global, regional, and national levels.

As a result, Scenario S1 predicted a situation in which 5.7 million women would be missing by the year 2100. The countries that will be affected by this are those that have been affected by disproportionate SRB in the past, such as China and India.

Also, in Scenario S2, in all countries at risk of SRB inflation, the number of female births increases to 22.1 (12.2; 39.8) million as the value of projected disappearances, with a significant impact in Sub-Saharan Africa as the sex ratio change occurs.

These conclusions suggested that if one wanted a "son" for one's child and continued to perform abortions, etc., one would end up with a situation similar to this research scenario.